There are many opinions on the topic of a possible housing shortage in America. One side thinks that with so many foreclosures sitting right under the surface we are about to have a major increase of REO homes coming to light. Others, mostly economists, think that a major lack of construction activity over the last two years will ultimately lead to a housing shortage. While both of these perspectives are probably right in some way, I think it all depends on how you look at it.
Is the market going to be flooded with older home including REO ones? It probably will be according to recent reports. On the other hand, the market for newly built homes will probably experience a shortage so those buyers wanting to buy new may have a harder time finding what they want. All of this of course depends on the market itself. According to a Smartmoney.com article, certain regions or cities will experience a shortage of flooding differently than others. Cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Miami are overbuilt so a home shortage in those areas is not likely. States like Washington, Oregon, and Utah will probably experience a shortage sometime in 2012. These locations actually have a balanced supply and demand, which makes experts think that these markets may become under supplied.
In the end, I think it really depends on what regions you are analyzing. We are going to see recovery vary in different locations based on conditions before the crash and current ones. There will however be a noticeable shortage of newly built homes throughout the country. Builders have certainly been on hiatus the last two years and I would think we would definitely see a shortage there may be a boom in new home construction.
#1 by Bruce A. Davis on July 28th, 2010 - 3:43 pm
The economists who write this drivel about a housing shortage are smoking crack while on a salaried job. Fannie Mae is giving a client of mine a contract to manage (NOT SELL) 40,000 homes that is taking back or has taken back. They will be leasing these homes, not offering them for sale because to do so would be cause another wholesale event of falling prices. Shortage? Ha, ha, ha.