Posts Tagged ‘Real estate economics’
Five Key Issues for 2012 Housing
Posted by Sibet B Freides in Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Trends on January 18th, 2012
While many housing markets rose together during the boom and fell together during the bust, they’re coming out of the downturn at very different speeds, and so it’s no longer a matter of a “national” housing market. We’ve seen recovery happening on a local market level, and at very diverse rates.
With that in mind, here are the five key issues as published by the Wall Street Journal that will determine the housing market in 2012:
1. Confidence and jobs: The housing market still needs the economy to add more jobs to stimulate demand for home purchases and to prevent mortgage delinquencies from rising. The good news is that housing is more affordable than it has been in decades. But many that are considering buying are not striking because they are concerned that the prices will continue to drop. Others don’t want to buy a house until they have more evidence that they’re not going to get laid off or see their hours cut back.
2. Foreclosures: Whether home prices hit a floor this year also relies on how banks manage a huge overhang of foreclosed homes that they haven’t yet taken back and resold. Banks and other mortgage investors own around 440,000 foreclosed properties, but there’s another 3.4 million loans in foreclosure or serious delinquency.
3. Rents: Apartment rents are rising as vacancy rates drop. If low mortgage rates aren’t enough to give urgency to buyers, rent hikes could accelerate their decisions to take the plunge. This is a good thing.
4. Mortgage credit and rates: Federal policymakers have taken extraordinary steps to keep mortgage rates low and federal-backed entities are responsible for backing nearly nine in 10 new mortgages. But it’s still hard for many buyers to get a loan because banks are demanding lots of documentation of borrowers’ incomes, and appraisals are tanking some deals. Banks will need to put their loan problems behind them before there’s much easing in lending standards.
5. Regulation: Many analysts don’t expect Congress to make major changes to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the election year, but several major regulatory changes could significantly reshape the future of the lending landscape in 2012.
Meanwhile, the regulator that oversees Fannie and Freddie is revamping the way that mortgage companies are paid for collecting loan payments.
What other key things do you think will affect the market this year?
Try Before You Buy – the New Way for Potential Homeowners?
Posted by Sibet B Freides in Real Estate Economics on April 18th, 2011
With banks being so stringent about homeowner loans, consumers are finding more and more that they need a back up plan. Enter the growing popularity of the lease to own option.
Lease to own requests are most common in hard-hit markets where foreclosures have driven down home prices and sellers can’t or don’t want to come down anymore on the asking price. If the house isn’t occupied it’s an opportunity to create some revenue for the seller.
But while sellers seem more likely to consider lease-to-buy arrangements, most won’t advertise it. Agents are reluctant as well, as it delays their commission.
What are the risks?
The renter-buyer could back out of the deal. For that reason, it’s important for home sellers to understand the difference between a lease option–where the renter simply has the option to buy down the road–and a lease purchase agreement, which requires that the renter put down anywhere from .5% to 2% of the sale price in earnest money or pay a monthly rent premium with a share of the rent going toward the purchase price. The sale price and timeline are also spelled out in the contract.
If the renter backs out, the homeowner does get to keep the earnest money, however they may not be able to get the renter to move out in order to put the house back on the market.
If renter-buyers don’t buy the home they’re usually out earnest money, unless they convince a homeowner to do a lease option with no strings attached. An agreement like that usually signifies a seller’s desperation, which would warrant further questioning regardless.
Conversely, what if the homeowner stops paying the mortgage? If the homeowner is foreclosed on, buyers of course have a claim against them, but will be competing with other creditors.
Potential lease-to-own tenants should at minimum ask for proof that the owners are current on their mortgage.
Strict loan requirements and rising rents – do you think least-to-own is the new growing trend? Is it a positive or negative trend in your opinion? Tell us by commenting below or post your thoughts on our Facebook page!
Posted by Sibet B Freides in Real Estate Economics, Real Estate Trends on October 26th, 2009
As it stands, a majority of activity seen in the first time housing market over the last few months can be credited to the $8,000 home buyer tax credit.
I recently read an article over at Seekingalpha.com about how the ending of the first time home buyer tax credit will effect not only sales numbers, but housing starts as well. The chart below shows housing start rates over the last year.
Taken from Seekingalpha.com
In regards to recent housing reports, the activity in building is slowing down. As the deadline for the tax credit draws nearer, we are already seeing a drop in home purchases, which means a drop in housing starts.
Slow Downs Are Coming Earlier Then Expected
We all knew that the end of the tax credit would bring a slow down, but many failed to foresee such an early drop. It takes a month or two to close on a new home, which is discouraging to buyers trying to enter the market at this point in time. It will be very hard to close on a home at this point in order to qualify for the tax credit.
Foreclosure Rates are Picking up Steam
The most disheartening part of all of this lies in foreclosure rates. Homes are still foreclosing at alarming rates. Many economists believe that foreclosure rates will hit new records throughout 2010. Here is an excerpt from the Seekingalpha.com article. Included is a chart of foreclosure filings.
But unfortunately it’s not as simple as just the sales side, as unless inventory is kept under control there will continue to be downward pressure on prices. As it stands, even with the tax credit sales are barely outrunning additional supply. In fact, the last reading on inventories from August showed that August inventory of existing homes is essentially flat with January. The reason is people are still foreclosing on their homes at alarming rates, and the onset of a recession and job losses has only made it worse.
Chart Taken from Seekingalpha.com
I continue to read conflicting stories about the effectiveness of the tax credit. Many economists believe that it is destroying the economy further, but I am still a believer. Here is why….
Why I Believe In The Tax Credit
Over the past few months, we have seen inventory moving that I don’t believe would have without the tax credit. In fact, we are seeing homes sell in some of the more volatile markets right now. The Cosmopolitan Condos here in Atlanta are sitting at a 95% occupancy rate. I believe their success can be contributed to a combination of the housing tax credit and price reductions. They have sold 105 homes over a three-month span.
I am seeing the tax credit work here in Atlanta. It is hard for me to believe otherwise when I see numbers like these.
Regardless of how you feel about the tax credit, the above should provide you with some good facts to base your decisions on. If you are a believer, I suggest you write your congressman and NAHB to get them to encourage Congress to continue the program.
How do you feel about a possible extension of the tax credit?
Tell us how you feel. Do you think it would be a good or bad thing? Leave a comment below.
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